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Is it too early to start making playoff predictions?

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    Posted 11/20 at 10:12 AM

    John Hollinger, the ESPN.com numbers guy that makes up random formulas and then talks about them like they’re scientific law, has released his playoff odds for the NBA. These odds are updated daily.

    Before I come to bury these odds, I have to point out that the Grizzlies fared pretty well, ranking 10th in the West in his predictions.

    Hollinger notes that injuries aren’t taken into account for these odds, which leads me to ask the question, “What’s the point?” His formula ends up with the 5-7 Mavericks, who’ve been at full strength, with an 81% chance of making the playoffs and has the 5-6 Spurs, who’ve played the majority of their games without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, with only a 20% chance of making the playoffs.

    While I agree that the Spurs are struggling without two of their three stars, it’s ridiculous to think that they only have a 20% chance of making the playoffs. I’m sure that Hollinger would say that if the Spurs continue to play the way they are playing now, they’d miss the playoffs. I can buy that, but isn’t this formula trying to predict who will make the playoffs? If injuries aren’t factored in, what’s the point? Everyone knows the Spurs have better than a 20% chance of making the playoffs because everyone knows that Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili won’t be injured all season. I don’t need a robust formula and chart to tell me that the Spurs, without Parker and Ginobili, aren’t playoff material. I also don’t need a formula to tell me they have a 20% chance of making the playoffs when they don’t.

    I also like the fact that the Cavs have a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. I’d put the Cavs chances at making the playoffs at 50-50. If LeBron James suffers a major injury, the Cavs miss the playoffs. If James remains healthy, the Cavs make the playoffs. How hard is that?

    Also, can you explain to me what the point of trying to predict the playoff teams is when about 10 games of the 82-game season have been played? Has there ever been a more inane discussion? Why does this anger me? Shouldn’t I just ignore it and more on? How many more questions can I ask myself?

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    Chris Avis was a pivotal ball boy for the Grizzlies during the playoffs of 2004 and 2005. During that time he delivered nachos to Zach Randolph, folded Steve Nash's warmups, threw a towel to Kobe Bryant and was scolded by Baron Davis. His crowning achievement was when Karl Malone called him "Big Man." He now serves as the fan blogger for the Grizzlies and is one half of the writing team at Rocking the Suburbs.

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